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Counting methods, Venn diagrams, tree diagrams and the fundamental counting principle.
Watch the full lesson before attempting practice questions.
Master these ideas before attempting exam questions.
If event A can happen in m ways and event B in n ways, together they can happen in m × n ways.
Arrangements where order matters. nPr = n!/(n−r)!
Selections where order does not matter. nCr = n!/[r!(n−r)!]
Used to visualise events. P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).
Mutually exclusive: P(A ∩ B) = 0. Independent: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B).
Commit these to memory — they appear in almost every exam.
These are your learning targets for Probability.
Avoid these errors — they cost marks every year.
P(A ∪ B) requires subtracting P(A ∩ B) — always draw a Venn diagram first.
Mutually exclusive: cannot both happen. Independent: one doesn't affect the other.
Use P(at least 1) = 1 − P(none). This is almost always the easier approach.
Request CAPS-aligned study materials for Probability.
Comprehensive CAPS-aligned notes covering all key concepts, theorems, and worked examples for Probability.
NSC-style exam questions with full memorandum. Ideal for timed practice and self-assessment before exams.
Graded practice questions organised by difficulty. Perfect for building confidence before Paper 2.
Straight answers to common Grade 12 CAPS questions about Probability.
Probability in Grade 12 CAPS focuses on the chance of events happening. You work with outcomes, tree diagrams, contingency tables, dependent and independent events, and probability rules.
Draw diagrams carefully, define the events clearly, and check whether events are dependent, independent, mutually exclusive, or conditional. Practising table and tree-diagram questions helps a lot.
Common mistakes include adding probabilities when you should multiply, ignoring conditions, and reading tables incorrectly. Learners also lose marks when they do not simplify or interpret answers properly.
CAPS exams usually test probability with tree diagrams, Venn diagrams, contingency tables, and word problems. These questions appear often in Paper 2 and reward careful reasoning.
Book a focused session with Chris Khomo and work through this topic step by step — at your own pace, online, from anywhere in South Africa.